我们能否在2021年底前实现群体免疫?- 美盈 #zh

Yeo Bee Yin's Message To Businesses Is Clear: Personal Connection Will Not  Help Them
图片:The Malaysian Insight, Kamal Ariffin

引自 杨美盈

我们能否在2021年底前实现群体免疫?若要达标,我们迫切需要根据现实各种情景进行规划

当我反复地看这些数字,我就越担心“国家新冠肺炎免疫计划”的进展以及我们是否在2022年2月实现群体免疫(80%的人口完成疫苗接种)。凯里还说目前的每日疫苗接种率达到每天7万6000剂,政府现在更加雄心壮志,并希望在今年年底前实现群体免疫。https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/…/we-can-reach-herd…/

根据政府目前所发布的公告,让我们看看政府是否可以实现目标。(即使我是国会议员,因为国会停摆,我也只能依靠公开的信息来推断。)首先,我已经提出对我国无法达到之前所定下的疫苗供应估计提出我的忧虑。https://www.facebook.com/150371651783435/posts/2012577355562846/

假设疫苗供应的挑战将得以解决,并且第三阶段疫苗接种计划可以从7月开始(原定是5月开始,延迟至6月,然后凯里5月5日宣布,可能推迟至7月),疫苗接种率目标为每日16万剂。https://codeblue.galencentre.org/…/mass-covid-19…/

假设疫苗接种率从现在的每日7万6000剂,每周稳定增加至7月1日的每日16万剂,则第二阶段的疫苗接种计划将能够接种约500万剂疫苗。第一阶段和第二阶段疫苗接种总和为700万剂。

问:为了达80%人口完成接种两剂疫苗的群体免疫目标,我们需要多少剂疫苗?答:32,000,000 x 2 x 0.8 = 51,200,0003200万人口 x 2剂疫苗 x 0.8 = 5120万剂疫苗

问: 如果我们从7月1日开始在第三阶段接种计划保持每天16万剂的疫苗接种率,那么我们要花多长时间才能达到目标?

答: [(51.2-7)*10^6]/160,000 = 276(5120万剂 – 700万剂1月和2月的接种总和) /每日16万剂 = 需要276天

从2021年7月1日算起,我们需要大约9个月来完成接种5120万剂疫苗。因此,严格来说,如果所有宣布的阶段性计划都达标,我们也只能在2022年4月1日之前实现群体免疫。 如果我们将群体免疫目标下调至只免疫70%人口,则我们将提前一个月,即2022年3月1日实现群体免疫。

总而言之,从政府目前的宣布来看,除非在第三阶段进一步提高每日疫苗接种率,否则我们将无法在今年年底或2022年2月实现群体免疫,除非我们有办法提高每日接种率或者重新定义群体免疫目标。

假设我们将群体免疫定义为80%人口至少接种第一剂疫苗,40%人口完成接种两剂疫苗(因为这将有助于明显减少确诊病例),则采用相同的计算方式 ,我们将在2022年1月中旬左右达到群体免疫。

答:[(32×0.8+32×0.4)-7]*10^6/160,000/30 =6.5

[(3200万人口 x0.8+3200万人口 x0.4)-700万]/16万剂/30 = 需要约6.5 个月

总体而言,对我来说,根据目前官方疫苗接种率方面的数据与计算,政府无法在今年底达到群体免疫目标。我开始怀疑政府是否有模拟任何现实中可能出现的各种情景,或规划相关方案以便如期达到群体免疫。

我们不仅需要针对正常情况进行规划,还需要为其他可能的情况进行规划,如:季风季节,疫苗交付延迟或疫苗接种中心发生水灾等。我们需要知道在每种不同情况下的每日接种目标是多少,以便我们能够如期达到群体免疫(不同的情况会有不同的途径。)不管在哪种情况下,我们都需要知道:

i. 疫苗供应的分配计划;

ii. 我们需要多少个接种中心,其位置(策略上, 选址应根据本地感染率地点排名)和购买或租用的硬体设施;

iii. 我们需要多少人,如何调动人手如公务员、私企雇员和自愿者;

iv. 我们需要多少MySejahtera和求助热线的容量,以防止在高峰时段发生系统故障事件;

v. 如何协调所有资源等等。

我们需要提出的问题是,例如,现有的疫苗接种率甚至只是第三阶段的一半,但据报道,MySejahtera和热线电话已经好几次出现故障。如果我们希望在今年底达到群体免疫,该系统是否可以应对每日16万剂,甚至更高的疫苗接种率负荷?

为了确保国家疫苗计划的成功,我们需要比以上所提出更为详细的计划。事实上,“国家新冠肺炎免疫计划”已经开跑了将近四个月,政府应该已掌握上述所有答案,准备好向公众宣布,并随着情况的变化进行更新,以增强公众的信心。

这则帖文绝不是为了批评新冠疫苗供应特别委员会(JKJAV),因为我知道计划执行者总是会遭受不公平的批评,但是我衷心希望委员会能对我的意见保持开放态度,并趁早对达到群体免疫目标进行各种情境模拟和资源规划,

如果我们无法妥善计划,那我们就只是在计划失败。(If we fail to plan, we are only planning to fail.)再一次,我谨此祝愿“国家新冠肺炎免疫计划”成功。


*以上文章内容仅代表作者本人观点。如有关于作品内容、版权或其它问题请与Newswav联系。

此文章首先出现在杨美盈脸书页面。

Malaysia’s Palestinian problem

Pro-Palestinian activists and supporters let off smoke flares, wave flags and carry placards during a demonstration in London in support of Palestine
Pic: Deustche Welle, Tolga Akmen

The Palestinian problem is about displacement and self-determination which has become a huge humanitarian issue as a result of war and conflict.

It is not about religion and a matter of Muslims against Jews.

Malaysia’s cardinal mistake is to think of it in the latter sense — as Islam versus Judaism — which has strategic consequences which do not serve the Palestinian cause.

From it much emotional nonsense emanates exposing many deep Malaysian ailments which in turn are comical, pathetic and shameless.

Divine power is being invoked. But God only helps those who help themselves. What thought and way out of the situation for the Palestinians have the emotionally driven Malay-Muslims given?

Then there is this going out to Gaza to fight against the Israelis bravada. This is pathetic as these “volunteers” would surely be killed if ever they got there. In any case, there was actually little fighting on the ground, rather missiles fired by Hamas mostly missing Israeli cities against Israeli aerial and artillery bombardments many times more lethal.

So what about humanitarian help for Palestinian victims men, women and children always caught in the middle? Here the issue arose about monies collected in the past not handed over or getting to Palestine.

Never mind, an ulama said. No need to make big of that. More important is to make a donation with sincerity for which you will be rewarded in the afterlife. Good God, what about condemning those who may have spirited away the money, an illegal and corrupt act? Or a call for transparency and accountability? None.

This has become a most serious and embedded attitude in Malaysia which is now reflected for all to see in international humanitarian assistance. Even when caught those with influence, primarily Malay-Muslims, are still okay to be supported. The leader of Malaysia’s leading Islamic party has said as much.

It is bad advertisement for Malays and Muslims, and places Malaysia on a par with so many other Muslim countries in the world, countries informed by hypocrisy and double standard. How can they even talk about international law when they follow no law? When they are, and have been, killing fellow Muslims for years on end.

The domestic audience, mostly non-Malay-Muslim, repressed by religious and racial extremism, are increasingly losing interest in the Palestinian cause, when framed as an Islamic Jihad, because they see how abominable those proclaiming it are.

On the international scene, let us not forget Israel too would like the conflict to be depicted as a religious one, because they can get people in the West who associate Islam with terrorism to do so in the Palestinian struggle.

In the section on Palestine of my book 9/11 and the Attack on Muslims I related how Israel jumped on the Islam equals to terror bandwagon to snuff out Palestinians and their hope for a homeland. Now we see again how, with our stupid help, Israel is deploying the same tactic.

In addition, Israel cleverly hides behind the excuse of anti-semitism, especially with the guilty West — and we fall smack into the trap.

All this does not help the Palestinians, already fighting against great odds. We cannot help them militarily. We don’t deliver humanitarian assistance after monies are collected with great fanfare. Then we also do not help by the misconstruction of the conflict, with due excitable chest-thumping, as a religious one of Muslims against Jews.

To repeat, the Palestinian struggle is a fight to have their own homeland. A fight, in fact, against displacement and for self-determination.

Much water has flown under the bridge since Israel was established in 1948, however unjustly for displaced Palestinians. Many opportunities for a Palestinian state, alongside Israel, have been missed. Four wars have been fought with countless, punishing operations by the Israelis in, now, a truncated “Palestine” and, each time, a victorious Israel has got stronger, and the Palestinians weaker.

In the 12 years of Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, the Israelis have become emboldened with audacious settlements on the West Bank. In this last round of the conflict, the Israelis descended upon Gaza like a tonne of bricks, using missile attacks from there as justification and cause for their heavy bombardment — whereas it all started after heavy-handed and Gestapo-like action on the West Bank by Israeli police in Sheikh Jarrah and Al Aqsa in the holy month of Ramadan.

Somehow it has all been twisted to make Israel the victim. What Hamas was trying to achieve militarily from Gaza with its ineffectual missiles was to show the Palestinians were not totally helpless. What they did achieve, on the contrary, was to show that they were.

Hamas has done this many times before with innocent Palestinians suffering each time. What is this for? We should also not froth at the mouth, for what will that achieve for the Palestinians?

Malaysia should be more creative in its Palestine policy, instead of being angry with ineffective threats, with the routine lines on the need for Muslim unity which does not exist — why waste time — and condemnation of Israel with no call on Hamas not to put at risk the lives of innocent men, women and, particularly, children.

We must emphasise, again and again, the Palestinian right to self-determination and the need for a two-state solution.

US President Biden now talks about it whereas Trump gave carte blanche to Netanyahu to do what he will, including erasure of that two-state solution. Nevertheless America has not been even-handed again in this round, vetoing twice a UN Security Council resolution calling for an immediate ceasefire, before getting Egypt to broker one as US supplicant.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi (China is president of the Security Council this month) actually offered his country’s good offices to bring about a ceasefire which neither Israel nor Hamas responded to. If not Hamas, at least the PLO should have responded to this gesture and get American knickers in a twist. Did they? No, they were consumed by unthinking emotion and passion.

Malaysia should, if it wants to have a credible Palestinian policy at all, work to get China more involved in the conflict so that the US does not alone, with Israel, play with Palestinian lives with impunity, while securing every single precious Israeli life.

We have to get smart, not get worked up and play to the domestic gallery. We also have to clean up our act if we want any country to bother with what we have to say, and not be exposed as another of those Muslim countries with no credibility.

We should speak out as a country, not as a Muslim country, which wants to see an end to the cycles of violence and suffering of the Palestinian people. We should state clearly that Israel’s right to exist must once and for all not be an issue, just as we call for establishment of a Palestinian state living side by side with it in peace.


*The views expressed are those of the author. If you have any questions about the content, copyright or other issues of the work, please contact Newswav.

Jangan kaitkan UMNO dengan kegagalan PN – Zahid #ms

Gambar: Raja Faisal Hishan, The Star

Oleh Datuk Seri Dr Ahmad Zahid Hamidi 

Saya difahamkan ada usaha untuk memalitkan parti UMNO dengan kegagalan kerajaan PN.

Saya fikir perkara ini wajar diperjelaskan sekali lagi supaya semua lebih terang dan faham.

Benar terdapat beberapa Ahli Parlimen daripada UMNO sedang menganggotai kerajaan PN.

Namun ia tidak pernah bermaksud yang parti UMNO terlibat dalam menentukan dasar-dasar negara.

Segala ketetapan untuk negara sebaliknya dibuat sepenuhnya oleh kerajaan PN.

Ini termasuklah tentang dasar-dasar berkait pengurusan pandemik Covid-19 di negara ini.

Penentuan dasar negara malah menjadi hak mutlak kerajaan PN sejak Ordinan Darurat dilaksanakan.

Iaitu tatkala institusi Parlimen digantung atas sebab-sebab yang masih dimusykilkan.

Justeru tidak patut ada pihak cuba ‘menjebak’ parti UMNO dengan kegagalan kerajaan PN menangani penularan Covid-19.

Adalah tidak adil apa sahaja kegagalan kerajaan PN cuba dikaitkan dengan parti UMNO.

Gara-gara beberapa Ahli Parlimennya menerima tawaran menganggotai kerajaan PN.

Bagaimanapun itu tidaklah pula bermaksud parti UMNO tidak mempedulikan nasib rakyat.

Banyak pandangan UMNO tujukan kepada kerajaan PN melalui platform bukan Parlimen sebelum ini.

Malangnya kebanyakan pandangan dan nasihat tentang Covid-19 itu kurang diberi perhatian.

Mengapa jadi begitu saya fikir semua boleh mengandaikan sebabnya.

Apapun kita terus berdoa yang baik-baik untuk rakyat dan negara dalam berdepan ancaman Covid-19.


*Kandungan di atas hanya mewakili pandangan penulis sendiri. Sekiranya anda mempunyai pertanyaan mengenai kandungan karya, hak cipta atau masalah lain, sila hubungi Newswav.

Catatan ini pertama kali muncul di laman Facebook Zahid Hamidi.

Ten stars who won LaLiga as both a player and a manager

Some of the most iconic names in LaLiga history have won Spanish football’s highest honour both on the field and in the dugout. 

It’s not easy to win the LaLiga title as a player or a coach, and it’s even harder to win it as both a player and a coach. In fact, only a handful of stars have achieved over the years.  

Zinedine Zidane 

Zinedine Zidane always speaks with great respect for the LaLiga trophy and is very aware of just how difficult it is to win. The Frenchman has won LaLiga three times, first as a player in 2003 – his only league title in Spain – and then two more times as a coach in 2017 and 2020.  

Luis Enrique 

The current Spanish national team coach knows all about winning the LaLiga title, having done so five times in the course of his career. He won three titles as a player, the first with Real Madrid in 1994/95 and then twice more with Barcelona (1998, 1999) having made the controversial move across the El Clasico divide in 1996. Years later he returned to the Camp Nou as coach, picking up two more titles (2015, 2016).  

Diego Simeone 

Atlético de Madrid have won 11 LaLiga titles in the club’s history and the last two had Diego Simeone’s fingerprints all over them. He was a key component of the 1995/96 double-winning side, scoring in the 2-0 final day win over Albacete which secured the title. Fast forward to 2014, he was the mastermind behind the historic league title which they wrapped up away at Barcelona on the final day of the season. Simeone adds another title this season, making it one as a player and two as a coach with Atleti.  

Pep Guardiola 

Nine of Barcelona’s 26 LaLiga titles have featured Pep Guardiola. A midfield leader during his playing days, Pep won the LaLiga title in 1991, 1992, 1993, 1994, 1998 and 1999 and was a key part of Johan Cruyff’s Dream Team. He left the club in 2001 but later returned as coach to create one of the best footballing sides in history, winning three consecutive LaLiga titles between 2008 and 2011.   

Bernd Schuster  

The German forward represented LaLiga’s three biggest sides – Barcelona, Real Madrid and Atletico de Madrid – between 1980 and 1993, winning the title at Barcelona in 1985 and then again with Real Madrid in 1989 and 1990. Der Blonde Engel (“the blond angel”) then returned to the Santiago Bernabeu as coach in the late 2000s, winning the LaLiga title in 2008 with a team featuring the likes of Raul, Iker Casillas, Ruud van Nistelrooy, Guti and Rafael van der Vaart.  

Vicente del Bosque  

What more is there to say about Vicente del Bosque, a man who has won a whopping seven LaLiga titles in addition to the World Cup and the European Championships. His LaLiga winner’s medals all came with Real Madrid, five times as a player (1974, 1975, 1977, 1978, 1979) and then twice again as a coach in the early twentieth century (2001, 2003). There are few men as decorated in the history of football as del Bosque.  

Jorge Valdano  

Jorge Valdano has held almost every role possible in football, from player and coach to director and commentator. The Argentine has won three LaLiga titles during his career, twice as a player with Real Madrid in 1986 and 1987 – as part of the famed Quinta del Buitre side – and then again as coach of Los Blancos in 1995. In addition to his remarkable trophy cabinet, he was also the man who gave a certain Raul Gonzalez his professional debut for Real Madrid back in 1994. LaLiga’s modern day history cannot be written without him!  

Johan Cruyff 

Perhaps the single most influential man in the history of football. His role in the propagation of total football in the 1970s was profound, and he won a LaLiga title with Barcelona in 1974 in only his first season in Spain. But it was time in charge of the side in the late 1980s and early 1990s which changed Barcelona forever. His ‘Dream Team’ won four consecutive titles (1991, 1992, 1993, 1994) and their possession-dominated playing style has left an indelible mark not only future Barça sides but world football since.  

Luis Aragonés  

An Atleti and Spain legend, Aragones won three LaLiga titles with the rojiblancos in 1966, 1970 and 1973 before adding another title to his trophy cabinet as coach in 1977. His legacy spanned decades, and he led Spain to the European Championship title in 2008.  

Alfredo Di Stéfano 

Football fans around the world know all about Di Stefano’s legendary exploits during his playing days, winning five consecutive European Cup titles and LaLiga eight times (1954, 1955, 1957, 1958, 1961, 1962, 1963, 1964). Fewer people may know that he also won the LaLiga title as a coach, and that it came with Valencia, not Real Madrid; Di Stefano’s Valencia side pipped Barcelona to the LaLiga title in 1971 thanks to the head-to-head rule after spending almost the whole season neck and neck.   

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